Municipal
Municipal Lead Service Line Replacement logic model
The city's service line inventory identifies 6,840 lead and 3,200 galvanized-requiring-replacement lines, concentrated in pre-1950 housing in low-income neighborhoods. The EPA Lead and Copper Rule Improvements set a 10-year replacement deadline for most systems.
Inputs
- Water utility capital staff, a program manager and an outreach team
- Completed service line inventory and a GIS replacement prioritization model
- Construction contracts for full line replacement, curb to house
- Pitcher filters and certified lab sampling capacity
Activities
- Verify unknown lines with potholing and predictive modeling
- Obtain owner consent through door-to-door and multilingual outreach
- Replace full lead and GRR lines, prioritizing homes with children and childcare sites
- Distribute filters and flushing guidance after each replacement
- Post progress on a public map
Outputs
- 1,100 full lead service line replacements per year
- 2,400 unknown lines verified per year
- 92% owner consent rate on outreach attempts
- 1,100 filter kits distributed with replacement visits
Short-term outcomes
- No partial replacements performed
- Post-replacement samples confirm lead levels within expected ranges
Intermediate outcomes
- All homes with children under 6 and all licensed childcare sites replaced first within 3 years
- System 90th percentile lead result falls below the action level
Long-term impact
- All lead and GRR lines replaced within the regulatory deadline
- Fewer children with blood lead at or above the CDC reference value in affected neighborhoods
Indicators and data sources
| Indicator | Source | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| Lines replaced by material and address | Utility service line inventory under the Lead and Copper Rule Improvements | Monthly internal, annual state report |
| 90th percentile lead concentration | Lead and copper compliance tap sampling reported to the state primacy agency | Per monitoring period |
| Children with blood lead at or above the CDC reference value | State childhood lead poisoning prevention program surveillance | Annual |
| Owner consent rate | Outreach CRM records | Monthly |
Assumptions
- State revolving fund allocations for lead line replacement continue at expected levels
- Contractor capacity can sustain 1,100 replacements per year
Programs this model suits
- Drinking Water State Revolving Fund lead service line replacement funds (including principal forgiveness)
- EPA WIIN Act Reducing Lead in Drinking Water grants
- State lead remediation and infrastructure grant programs
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